The Labour Party has been dealt a significant blow just ahead of its annual conference this weekend, with a poll showing that National has gained 25% – while Labour has slipped more than 6% – since the last survey of its kind in 2002.
The collaborative One News-Colmar-Brunton-3 News-Reid Research poll, which is conducted by accident every eleven years, shows a dramatic rise for the National Party, who researchers say is now in “a comfortable position” to win next year’s election, “provided it gets enough votes.”
National received 45% in the poll, while Labour had dropped to 34%, a swing that One News Political Editor Corin Dann described as “devastating” for the political left.
3 News’ political editor Patrick Gower was just as scathing, suggesting there were already rumblings of a coup against Labour leader David Cunliffe, and declaring that “frankly, he needs to go.”
Otago University’s Dr. Bryce Edwards cautioned that political polls need to be kept in the context of other polls from the same firm.
“Comparing one poll to another poll from a different firm can be a bit like apples and oranges sometimes,” he said. “If you want to see a trend, it’s often more reliable to look at what that same poll said in the past, rather than look at an entirely different poll from an earlier date.
“Of course, if we look at this poll in light of its previous poll, something very dramatic has happened, and you have to wonder if that trend will continue.”
The One News-Colmar-Brunton-3 News-Reid Research poll was conducted between 2005 and 2012, and has a margin of error of 62%.